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Wheat production estimates differ

A Statistics Canada report from last week forecasts total wheat production to be 29.472 million mt., down 4.9 million mt from last year compared to the expected 3.4 million mt drop in production on average going into the report.

Statistics Canada also pegged the Canadian spring wheat production at 22.1 million mt, which is significantly lower than the Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission’s (Sask Wheat) number – which is provided by Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc. – as well as trade estimates, which put that number at 23.1-23.5 million mt. Statistics Canada’s average yield estimate is at 41.7 bu/acre vs. Mercantile’s at 44.4 bu/acre.

Sask Wheat said it is “somewhat surprising” that international markets took little notice of the lower Canadian production numbers, and the report did nothing so far to change the overall bearish sentiment from last week.

In its report, Statistics Canada also changed the 2022 spring wheat production number with a 165,000 mt upward adjustment to 25.8 million mt for 2022.

The Saskatchewan spring wheat crop is 26 per cent harvested, with the southwestern region furthest advanced. Alberta spring wheat is 19 per cent harvested. Yield reports remain variable.

Durum

About 48 per cent of Saskatchewan durum has been harvested.

The Statistics Canada numbers for durum stated production at 4.26 million mt, which happens to coincide with Sask Wheat’s production estimate. This reflects a 25.9 bu/acre average yield.

The 2023/25 Canadian durum production is 26 per cent smaller than last years and supply is 24 per cent smaller. This shows why Mercantile estimates exports will have to be rationed somewhat this crop year. Mercantile is using 3.8 million mt for exports based on the current production estimate. This scenario would leave a tight 300,000 mt carry-out.