StatsCan: Wheat, canola, barley and other crop production expected to increase
September 19, 2022 By Statistics Canada
In 2022, Canadian farmers are projected to produce more wheat, canola, barley, oats, soybeans and corn for grain than they did in 2021, according to the most recent yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data. Increased production was largely driven by higher yields because of better growing conditions in Western Canada.
Statistics Canada, in collaboration with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, has relied upon proven satellite technology to model preliminary crop yields and production since 2016. These methods have been used successfully for the past six years to produce September yield estimates, and they replaced July yield estimates beginning in 2020. The September publication of the Crop Reporting Series is a joint release between Statistics Canada and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
The Crop Condition Assessment Program indicates that plant health in Western Canada varied as of Aug. 31. In areas that received sufficient precipitation and warm temperatures, crop condition is considered higher than normal. In some drier areas that experienced higher-than-average temperatures throughout August, crop condition deteriorated and is now considered lower than normal. Despite the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index exceeding normal magnitude for most areas in Western Canada midway through the 2022 growing season, growing conditions throughout the month of August may have decreased yield potential in some areas.
Despite potentially reduced yields, conditions across Western Canada are generally more favourable than in 2021. Much of the Prairies have received consistent precipitation since June, except for southwestern and central parts of Saskatchewan.
In Eastern Canada, much of southern Ontario has experienced drier-than-average conditions, while eastern parts of Ontario and most of Quebec received higher-than-average rainfall. In general, temperatures over the last month of the growing season were warmer than normal as of August 31.
Wheat production is expected to increase on higher harvested area and better yields
Nationally, wheat production is projected to increase by 55.6 per cent year-over-year to 34.7 million tonnes in 2022. This increase is largely attributable to higher anticipated yields, which are expected to rise by 42.1 per cent to 51.3 bushels per acre, roughly in line with the five-year average of 51.0 bushels per acre from 2016 to 2020. Harvested area is also expected to increase by 9.4 per cent to 24.9 million acres.
The increase in expected total wheat production is largely attributable to spring wheat, which is anticipated to rise by 60.3 per cent to 26.1 million tonnes. This increase is a result of higher anticipated yields (+42.4 per cent to 53.7 bushels per acre) and harvested area (+12.5 per cent to 17.8 million acres).
Durum wheat yields are also anticipated to rise (+90.1 per cent to 38.4 bushels per acre), contributing to higher expected production (+101.3 per cent to 6.1 million tonnes).
Wheat yields in Saskatchewan are expected to rise by 54.8 per cent to 43.5 bushels per acre in 2022, while harvested area is projected to rise by 12.5 per cent, resulting in a 74.0 per cent increase in production to 15.4 million tonnes.
Compared with 2021, wheat production in Alberta is projected to increase by 80.1 per cent per cent to 11.6 million tonnes, which is largely the result of higher yields (+64.9 per cent to 57.4 bushels per acre), while harvested area is expected to rise by 9.3 per cent to 7.4 million acres.
In Manitoba, wheat harvested area is expected to rise by 11.4 per cent to 3.2 million acres, while yields are anticipated to increase by 23.8 per cent to 59.3 bushels per acre. Total wheat production is anticipated to rise by 37.8 per cent year over year to 5.2 million tonnes.
Wheat production in Ontario (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to fall by 22.7 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes year over year in 2022 as a result of lower harvested acres (-20.6 per cent) and yields (-2.7 per cent).
Higher anticipated yields push canola production higher
Nationally, in 2022, canola production is expected to rise by 38.8 per cent to 19.1 million tonnes, as growing conditions in the Prairies improved considerably relative to 2021. While the rise pushed yields higher (+44.9 per cent to 39.7 bushels per acre), they are below the five-year average of 41.5 bushels per acre from 2016 to 2020.
Saskatchewan is expected to produce 43.5 per cent more canola in 2022 than in 2021, at 9.7 million tonnes. Yields are projected to increase by 51.2 per cent to 37.8 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to fall by 5.1 per cent to 11.3 million acres.
Canola production in Alberta is expected to increase by 40.3 per cent to 6.1 million tonnes. Higher yields (+44.3 per cent to 41.7 bushels per acre) are expected to offset the decrease in harvested area (-2.8 per cent to 6.4 million acres).
In Manitoba, yields are expected to rise by 30.0 per cent to 42.5 bushels per acre, offsetting a projected 3.8 per cent decrease in harvested area to 3.3 million acres, resulting in a 25.0 per cent production increase to 3.1 million tonnes.
Corn for grain production is projected to increase on higher yields
Nationally, corn for grain production is projected to increase by 6.3 per cent to 14.9 million tonnes in 2022, with yields anticipated to rise to 164.3 bushels per acre (+2.6 per cent) and harvested area expected to rise to 3.6 million acres (+3.6 per cent).
In Ontario, the largest corn for grain-producing province, production is expected to rise by 3.5 per cent to 9.8 million tonnes on higher harvested area (+5.0 per cent to 2.2 million acres), offsetting lower yields (-1.5 per cent to 172.6 bushels per acre).
Corn for grain production in Quebec is projected to rise by 3.9 per cent to 3.6 million tonnes. Yields are expected to rise by 3.3 per cent to 157.7 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to edge up by 0.6 per cent to 887,400 acres.
Soybean production is expected to rise on higher yields
Nationally, soybean production is projected to increase by 3.7 per cent year over year to 6.5 million tonnes in 2022. Yields are expected to rise by 5.5 per cent to 46.1 bushels per acre, while harvested area is anticipated to decrease by 1.7 per cent to 5.2 million acres.
Soybean production in Ontario is expected to edge up 0.7 per cent in 2022 to 4.1 million tonnes. Harvested area is expected to rise by 5.5 per cent to 3.1 million acres, while yields are anticipated to fall 4.5 per cent to 49.3 bushels per acre.
In Manitoba, soybean production is projected to increase by 23.7 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes in 2022. Harvested area is projected to decrease by 14.3 per cent to 1.1 million acres. However, yields are projected to rise by 44.3 per cent year over year to 39.1 bushels per acre because moisture conditions have improved.
In Quebec, soybean production is projected to increase by 4.7 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes on higher anticipated yields (+0.9 per cent to 44.6 bushels per acre), while harvested area is expected to rise by 3.7 per cent to 950,900 acres.
Barley and oat production is projected to rise
Higher barley yields compared with 2021 (+59.1 per cent to 68.4 bushels per acre) are projected to more than offset lower anticipated harvested area (-14.8 per cent to 6.3 million acres). As a result, barley production is expected to rise by 35.5 per cent year over year to 9.4 million tonnes in 2022.
Oat production is projected to rise by 65.7 per cent to 4.7 million tonnes. Harvested area is expected to increase by 10.6 per cent to 3.2 million acres, and yields are expected to rise by 50.0 per cent year over year to 93.9 bushels per acre in 2022.