Features Agronomy Cereals
USDA August report sites corn down, soybeans up

August 12, 2008

Corn production is forecast at 12.3 billion bushels, down six percent from last year but 17 percent above 2006. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 155.0 bushels per acre, up 3.9 bushels from last year. If realized, this yield would be the second highest on record, behind 2004. Production would be the second highest on record, behind last year when producers harvested the most acres of corn for grain since 1933. Forecasted yields are higher than last year in the northern and eastern Corn Belt, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and northern half of the Atlantic Coast where frequent precipitation this year contrasted with extremely dry weather last year. Expected yields across the southern half of the Great Plains and the Carolinas are below last year due to drought-like conditions throughout much of the growing season. Growers expect to harvest 79.3 million acres for grain, up 350,000 acres from June but 8 percent lower than last year.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.97 billion bushels, up 15 percent from last year but down seven percent from the record high production of 2006. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.5 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from 2007. Compared with last year, yields are forecast lower in Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Ohio, Texas, and across the northern and central Great Plains. In contrast, yield prospects are forecast higher than last year or unchanged across the remainder of the country, with the largest increases in Kentucky and Tennessee, up 13 and 12 bushels from last year, respectively. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 73.3 million acres, up 2 percent from June and up 17 percent from 2007.

All wheat production, at 2.46 billion bushels, is virtually unchanged from the July forecast but up 19 percent from 2007. Based on August 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 43.5 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month but 3.0 bushels above last year. Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.87 billion bushels. This is up one percent from last month and 24 percent above 2007. The U.S. yield is forecast at 46.6 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last month and up 4.4 bushels from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain totals 40.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 12 percent from last year.

Hard Red Winter, at 1.06 billion bushels, is up one percent from a month ago.

Soft Red Winter, at 609 million bushels, is up slightly from the last forecast.

White Winter is down 3 percent from last month and now totals 211 million bushels. Of this total, 23.6 million bushels are Hard White and 187 million bushels are Soft White.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 86.6 million bushels, down 4 percent from July but up 21 percent from 2007. The U.S. yield is forecast at 33.5 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from last month and 0.4 bushel below last year. Expected area to be harvested for grain totals 2.58 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 22 percent from last year.

Other Spring wheat production is forecast at 501 million bushels, down 1 percent from last month but up 5 percent from 2007. Area harvested for grain totals 13.8 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 6 percent from last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 36.4 bushels per acre, 0.4 bushel below last month and 0.6 bushel below 2007. Of the total production, 466 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, down less than 1 percent from last month.

Extensive rains and flooding during June in several Midwestern States caused producers to change harvesting intentions for crops already planted and modify planting decisions for acres not yet planted. In an effort to more accurately determine how many acres producers planted and still intend to harvest, NASS conducted an intensive re-interview study in July in flood-affected areas. Acreage estimates in this report reflect this updated information.

See the full USDA report at: usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1046