Business & Policy
Statistics Canada field crop production report: July
By Statistics Canada
August 23, 2016 - Canadian farmers expect production of wheat, barley and lentils to increase in 2016, while canola, soybean, corn for grain and oats are anticipated to decline.
Extremely dry and wet weather conditions in different parts of the country have played a significant role in the production expectations reported in the July survey.
Total wheat production is expected to reach 30.5 million tonnes in 2016, up 10.5 per cent compared with last year. This could mark the second time in 25 years that wheat production will exceed 30 million tonnes, the other being the bumper crop of 2013.
The reported increase in total wheat production resulted from a projected higher average yield of 48.9 bushels per acre in 2016, up 14.3 per cent from 42.8 bushels per acre in 2015. In turn, harvested area declined 3.3 per cent to 22.9 million acres, the lowest level in five years.
Farmers in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Ontario all expect total wheat production to rise in 2016.
Farmers in Saskatchewan anticipate production to rise 5.1 per cent to 13.7 million tonnes, despite harvested area declining nearly a million acres to 11.9 million acres in 2016. The gain in total wheat production is buoyed by a 5.0 bushels per acre increase in average yield to 42.2 bushels per acre in 2016.
Producers in Alberta expect a 15.4 per cent increase in total wheat production to 9.6 million tonnes, the result of a 15.6 per cent rise in average yield to 53.4 bushels per acre. Area harvested to all wheat is expected to be similar to 2015 levels at 6.6 million acres.
In Ontario, where mostly winter wheat is grown, production of all wheat is anticipated to rise 66.7 per cent from a year earlier to 2.6 million tonnes. The overall increase reflects a higher reported harvest area of 1.1 million acres (+42.0 per cent), and an expected record average yield of 89.2 bushels per acre (+17.4 per cent).
In contrast, Manitoba farmers reported a 2.9 per cent decrease in the wheat they expect to produce to 4.1 million tonnes in 2016. Harvested area is anticipated to decrease 4.4 per cent to 2.9 million acres, while yields are reported to have edged up 1.6 per cent from 2015 to 51.1 bushels per acre.
Canadian farmers anticipate producing 17.0 million tonnes of canola in 2016, down 1.2 per cent from 2015. While the national average yield is projected to remain at 38.0 bushels per acre, lower expected harvested areas in Alberta and Manitoba are contributing to the decline in national production.
Canola production in Saskatchewan is expected to edge up 0.8 per cent from 2015 to 8.9 million tonnes in 2016. This is largely due to a 1.2 per cent increase in harvested area, with average yield similar to the 36.3 bushels per acre in 2015.
In Alberta, canola production is anticipated to decline 1.0 per cent from 2015 to 5.4 million tonnes as a result of a 4.6 per cent drop in harvested acreage. Farmers anticipate average yields to increase 3.8 per cent to 41.2 bushels per acre, up from 39.7 bushels per acre reported in 2015.
Manitoba farmers expect canola production to fall 7.8 per cent to 2.6 million tonnes. Canola harvested area is anticipated to be 80,000 acres lower (-2.6 per cent) than a year earlier, and average yield is expected to decline 5.5 per cent to 38.1 bushels per acre.
Corn for grain production in Canada is expected to decline 8.9 per cent from 2015 to 12.3 million tonnes in 2016. The national record average yield of 164.7 bushels per acre in 2015 is expected to fall 9.4 per cent to 149.3 bushels per acre in 2016.
Ontario is the major provincial producer of corn for grain, but dry weather conditions in many farm areas are tempering production expectations. As a result, Ontario farmers expect corn for grain production to fall 11.1 per cent to 7.9 million tonnes. This anticipated decline is tied to a projected decrease in average yield to 153.5 bushels per acre, down 10 per cent from 170.6 bushels per acre in 2015. Harvested acres are expected to decline slightly (-1.2 per cent).
Quebec farmers expect their corn for grain production to decline 8.8 per cent from the previous year to 3.4 million tonnes. This is the result of a 1.9 per cent reduction in harvested area to 882,200 acres, combined with a 7 per cent decrease in average yield to 153.1 bushels per acre.
Conversely, production of corn for grain in Manitoba is expected to increase 19 per cent from 2015 to 937 300 tonnes. This increase in production can be attributed to a 30.6 per cent gain in harvested area to 320,000 acres, as average yield is expected to fall 11.2 bushels per acre (-8.9 per cent) to 115.3 bushels per acre.
Nationally, soybean production is expected to be 5.8 million tonnes in 2016, down 6.5 per cent from 2015. Reported average yields were down for all major soybean producing provinces.
Ontario, the largest soybean producer, is anticipating a 15 per cent decrease to 3.1 million tonnes in 2016. Harvested area is expected to fall 7.1 per cent to 2.7 million acres. At the same time, the average yield for the province is expected to decline from the 45.5 bushels per acre in 2015 to 41.6 bushels per acre in 2016.
In Manitoba, farmers expect record soybean production for a fifth consecutive year, up 9.8 per cent from 2015 to 1.5 million tonnes in 2016, despite a 5.4 per cent decrease in average yield to 35.0 bushels per acre. The anticipated increase in soybean production is the result of a 16.3 per cent rise in harvested area to a provincial record 1.6 million acres.
Quebec producers anticipate a 1 per cent decline in soybean production to 990 000 tonnes. Although a 3 per cent increase in harvested area to 800,600 acres was reported, average soybean yield in Quebec is expected to fall 4.0 per cent to 45.4 bushels per acre in 2016.
Lentil production is expected to reach a record high in 2016, as farmers estimate output to increase 36.3 per cent from a year earlier to 3.2 million tonnes. The rise in lentil production is the result of a 36.9 per cent increase in harvest area to 5.4 million acres, as expected average yield was 0.5 per cent lower this year at 1,326 pounds per acre.
The majority of national lentil production takes place in Saskatchewan, and farmers in the province are projecting 2.8 million tonnes for 2016. Anticipated average yield was reported at 1,283 pounds per acre, down 4.2 per cent from 2015. During the survey period in July, significant amounts of rain fell in much of the province, which influenced yield expectations. As rain continued into August, final average yield could be further compromised in regions experiencing excess moisture.
Meanwhile, lentil production in Alberta is expected to increase 213.6 per cent to 432 700 tonnes, a record level for the province. Farmers in Alberta anticipate a 127.6 per cent increase in harvest area to 560,000 acres. Average yields are expected to rise 37.8 per cent from 2015 to 1,704 pounds per acre, but below the five-year average of 1,808 pounds per acre.
Barley and oats
Barley production is expected to rise 5.8 per cent to 8.7 million tonnes in 2016. This growth is attributable to a 6.5 per cent increase in average expected yield to 69.2 bushels per acre. Meanwhile, little change is expected in harvested area, reported at 5.8 million acres (-0.7 per cent) in 2016.
Canadian farmers expect oat production to fall 11.9 per cent to 3.0 million tonnes. This decrease reflects a 12.1 per cent decline in expected harvested area to 2.3 million acres, as average yield is anticipated to remain basically unchanged from last year at 85.5 bushels per acre (+0.2 per cent).