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Soybean outlook calls for record production in 2014

Oct. 3, 2014 - Farmers expect lower levels of production for most field crops this year compared with the bumper crops on the Canadian Prairies in 2013. However, according to Statistics Canada, soybean production could climb to a sixth consecutive record high.

The September Farm Survey of crop production was conducted from Sept. 4 to 14, and involved about 9,300 farms. Farmers were asked to report their estimated area, yield and production grains, oilseeds and special crops.

Wheat
Nationally, total wheat production is expected to fall 26.8 per cent from 2013 to 27.5 million tonnes. Harvested area is expected to decline 10.5 per cent to 23.1 million acres, while average yield is expected to fall 18.2 per cent to 43.7 bushels per acre.

Saskatchewan anticipates production to decline 26.9 per cent to 13.4 million tonnes. Average yield is expected to be 38.8 bushels per acre, 19.0 per cent lower than in 2013.

Alberta (-24.0 per cent) and Manitoba (-34.5 per cent) are also expecting lower production.

Canola
Canola production is anticipated to decline 21.6 per cent from the record high in 2013 to 14.1 million tonnes. Most of this decrease can be attributed to lower expected average yield, down 19.8 per cent to 32.1 bushels per acre nationally.

Farmers in Saskatchewan expect a 20.2 per cent decline in yield this year. As a result, production is expected to decrease 22.9 per cent to 6.9 million tonnes.

Alberta farmers expect production to decline 17.8 per cent from 2013 to 4.9 million tonnes. This is mainly driven by a 19.2 per cent drop in yield to 35.3 bushels per acre.

In Manitoba, production is anticipated to fall 25.7 per cent from 2013 to 2.1 million tonnes.

Soybeans
Canadian farmers reported soybean production could reach another record level in 2014 at 6.0 million tonnes.
Production in Ontario is expected to increase 10.3 per cent to 3.6 million tonnes. A 16.8 per cent increase in harvested area is expected to drive the overall gain compared with 2013. Average yield is expected to decline 5.7 per cent to 43.3 bushels per acre.

Farmers in Quebec expect overall output to reach the 1.0 million tonne mark for the first time in 2014. As in Ontario, a larger harvested area (+19.8 per cent) is expected to boost production.

Manitoba is anticipating a stable level of production in 2014 at 1.1 million tonnes. Higher harvested area (+15.8 per cent) is expected to be offset by a 5.0 bushel per acre decrease in yield from 2013 to 32.6 bushels per acre.

Corn for grain
Nationally, production of corn for grain is anticipated to decline 19.7 per cent from the record high of 14.2 million tonnes in 2013 to 11.4 million tonnes this year.

In Ontario, farmers expect to harvest 1.9 million acres, a 15.8 per cent decrease from 2013. Consequently, production is expected to decline 18.2 per cent to 7.4 million tonnes.

Quebec farmers also expect a lower harvested area of corn for grain, down 13.8 per cent to 873,500 acres. As a result, production is anticipated to decline 15.6 per cent from 2013 to 3.2 million tonnes.

Barley and oats
Canadian farmers are expecting barley production to decrease 30.5 per cent from 2013 to 7.1 million tonnes. A decrease in both harvested area (down 19.6 per cent to 5.3 million acres) and yield (down 13.5 per cent to 62.0 bushels per acre) are expected to account for the overall decline.

At the national level, production of oats is expected to decrease 31.2 per cent to 2.7 million tonnes. The decrease results from anticipated declines in both harvested area (down 20.5 per cent to 2.2 million acres) and an average yield of 79.7 bushels per acre, down 13.5 per cent from 2013.