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Soybean acres down

Oct. 2, 2015 - The September Farm Survey of crop production covering about 9,300 Canadian farms was conducted from Sept. 3 to 13, 2015. Farmers were asked to report their estimated area, yield and production of grains, oilseeds and special crops.

Farmers expect production of wheat, canola and soybeans to be lower in 2015 compared with 2014. Soybean production is anticipated to fall for the first time since 2007. Meanwhile, corn, barley and oats are expected to see an increase in output.

Wheat
Total Canadian wheat production is expected to fall by 11.4 per cent from 2014 to 26.1 million tonnes. This overall decline results from a reported 12.4 per cent decrease in average yield, from 46.1 bushels per acre in 2014 to 40.4 bushels per acre in 2015. Meanwhile, harvested area is expected to rise by 1.2 per cent to 23.7 million acres in 2015.

Saskatchewan farmers anticipate wheat production to fall 15.3 per cent to 12 million tonnes. Average yield is anticipated to be 34.5 bushels per acre, down from 40.5 bushels per acre in 2014. Harvested area is reported to remain at 12.8 million acres.

Alberta farmers also anticipate lower wheat production (-17.8 per cent) in 2015, at 7.7 million tonnes, while Manitoba farmers are reporting a 14.7 per cent increase from 2014 to 4.4 million tonnes.

Canola
Nationally, canola production is anticipated to decline 12.9 per cent from 2014 to 14.3 million tonnes. The decrease in production is attributable to both a lower expected average yield, down 8.3 per cent to 32.2 bushels per acre, and fewer harvested acres (-5 per cent).

Farmers in Saskatchewan expect a 6.1 per cent decline in yield in 2015, as well as fewer harvested acres (-2.8 per cent). As a result, production is anticipated to fall 8.7 per cent to 7.3 million tonnes.

Alberta farmers expect production to decline 24.9 per cent to 4.4 million tonnes in 2015. This is the result of an anticipated decline in yield from 38 bushels per acre in 2014 to 32 bushels per acre in 2015 and a 10.8 per cent drop in lower harvested area to six million acres.

Canola production in Manitoba is expected to reach 2.5 million tonnes, matching the output from 2014. Harvested area is also anticipated to be unchanged in 2015 at 3.1 million acres. Average yield is reported at 36.3 bushels per acre, slightly ahead of the yield of 36 bushels per acre in 2014.

Soybeans

Canadian farmers reported that soybean production could fall 2 per cent to 5.9 million tonnes in 2015, following seven consecutive years of record highs. The decrease in production reflects a 2.3 per cent decline in harvested area.

Production in Ontario is expected to decrease 9.1 per cent to 3.4 million tonnes compared with 2014. Declines are anticipated in both harvested area (-4.4 per cent) and average yield (-4.8 per cent). At the time of the survey, harvested area was reported at 2.9 million acres and yield at 43.3 bushels per acre.

Soybean production in Manitoba is reported at 1.3 million tonnes, up 14 per cent over 2014 levels. This advance results from an expected 4.8 per cent increase in harvested area to 1.3 million acres and a nine per cent gain in average yield to 35.2 bushels per acre.

Quebec farmers expect output will increase four per cent to 933,500 tonnes in 2015. This is the result of an anticipated 14 per cent gain in average yield to 44.1 bushels per acre, as harvested area is expected to decrease 8.8 per cent to 777,100 acres.

Corn for grain
National production of corn for grain is expected to increase 6.2 per cent from 2014 to 12.2 million tonnes in 2015.

In Ontario, farmers expect to harvest two million acres of corn for grain, up 9.7 per cent from 2014. Consequently, production is expected to increase 7.3 per cent to 8.2 million tonnes.

Quebec farmers expect harvested area of corn for grain to increase 2.8 per cent to 897,000 acres. The average yield is expected to rise 6.4 per cent to 145.3 bushels per acre. As a result, production is anticipated to increase 9.3 per cent to 3.3 million tonnes compared with 2014.

Conversely, in Manitoba, production of corn for grain is expected to be 584,200 tonnes, down 16.1 per cent from 2014. Declines are anticipated in both harvested area (-14.3 per cent) and average yield (-2.1 per cent).

Barley and oats
Farmers in Canada expect barley production to rise 6.9 per cent from 2014 to 7.6 million tonnes. This increase is the result of a 10.6 per cent gain in harvested area to 5.8 million acres, as the average yield is anticipated to decrease from 61.9 bushels per acre in 2014 to 59.9 bushels per acre in 2015. The decrease in the national average yield can be tied to Alberta's reported 10.3 per cent decline in average bushels per acre, as Alberta production accounts for 51 per cent of total expected Canadian barley production in 2015.

At the national level, oats production is expected to rise 10.5 per cent to 3.3 million tonnes. This gain is attributable to a 17.8 per cent increase in harvested area to 2.7 million acres, as average yield is expected to decrease 6.2 per cent to 79 bushels per acre. Saskatchewan, which is projected to account for 56 per cent of Canada's oat production in 2015, is expected to lead the gain.


October 2, 2015
By Top Crop Manager

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