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Principal field crop estimates

The production of spring wheat and barley at the national level is estimated to be higher in 2016 than in 2015, while that of soybeans and canola is expected to be relatively unchanged, according to Statistics Canada's model-based principal field crop estimates report for Aug. 31. Production of oats and corn for grain is expected to decline.

Model-based principal field crop estimates, which provide yield and production estimates for Canada's principal field crops, are now available. In this release, data for Canada correspond to combined data from Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Wheat
At the national level, spring wheat production is estimated to be 20.6 million tonnes in 2016, up 3.9 per cent from 2015, mainly as a result of a higher estimated average yield across the Prairies. The national average yield is anticipated to be 49.9 bushels per acre (bu/ac), up 13.4 per cent from 44 bushels per acre in 2015. Harvested acreage in 2016 is reported to have declined 8.3 per cent compared with 2015.

Spring wheat production is expected to increase in Alberta (+13.5 per cent) and Manitoba (+2.6 per cent) in 2016, but to decrease in Saskatchewan (-2.8 per cent). Average yield in Saskatchewan is anticipated to be up 10.6 per cent compared with 2015 to 43.3 bu/ac. However, an anticipated decline (-12.1 per cent) in harvested area is expected to offset the higher yield anticipated in 2016. In Alberta, average yield is expected to rise 20.7 per cent from 2015 to 57 bu/ac.

Durum wheat production at the national level is expected to be 7.3 million tonnes in 2016, up 35.7 per cent from 2015. This increase is due to a 4.4 per cent gain in acreage, combined with a 30 per cent rise in expected yield to 44.7 bu/ac.

Canola
At the national level, canola production is estimated to be 18.3 million tonnes in 2016, the same level as in 2015, as a result of an expected increase in average yield combined with an anticipated decline in harvested acreage. Estimated average yield for 2016 is up 4.2 per cent from 2015 to a record 41.1 bushels per acre. Estimated average yield is also up compared with the five-year average for Manitoba (+22.9 per cent), Saskatchewan (+16.7 per cent) and Alberta (+17.5 per cent). Harvested acreage is expected to be down four per cent to 19.6 million acres in 2016.

Soybeans
At the national level, soybean production is estimated to be virtually unchanged compared with 2015, totalling six million tonnes in 2016. Hot and dry growing conditions in Ontario led to an expected three per cent decrease in soybean yield to 44.1 bushels per acre in 2016. Production within the province is expected to be down 10 per cent from 2015 to 3.2 million tonnes. However, soybean production in Manitoba is estimated to be up 24.7 per cent compared with 2015, because of an expected increase in harvested area (+16.3 per cent to 1.6 million acres) and average yield (+7.3 per cent to 39.7 bushels per acre) in 2016.

Corn for grain

At the national level, corn for grain production is estimated to decrease 2.9 per cent from 2015 to 13 million tonnes in 2016.

An expected decline in yield and a lower reported harvested acreage in 2016 could lead to decreased production in Ontario (-4.5 per cent to 8.4 million tonnes) and Quebec (-5.5 per cent to 3.6 million tonnes) compared with 2015. Although average yield in Manitoba is expected to decline 2.9 per cent from 2015 to 122.8 bushels per acre, production is anticipated to increase 26.8 per cent to one million tonnes in 2016, primarily as a result of an expected gain in harvested acreage (+30.6 per cent to 320,000 acres).

Barley and oats
At the national level, barley production is estimated to increase 4.4 per cent from 2015 to 8.4 million tonnes in 2016, because of a five per cent rise in expected average yield to 68.3 bushels per acre.

At the national level, oat production is anticipated to decrease 13.4 per cent from 2015 to 2.9 million tonnes in 2016, as a result of a 12.5 per cent decline in reported harvested acres to 2.2 million acres. Average yield is expected to edge down to 84.8 bushels per acre.


September 20, 2016
By Statistics Canada

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